Electric Vehicle (EV) Outlook

Transportation accounts for nearly 15 % of the global greenhouse gas emissions. It is projected to account for nearly 21% of the global CO2 emissions by 2050. However with the global goal to limit the temperature rise to only 2°C by 2050 means nearly 75% of all vehicles sold by 2050 would have to be electrically driven (either completely EV of hybrid). In contrast to the big dream , our current EV vehicles account for less than 1% of the global vehicles sold.

GHG2050 GreenhouseGasEmissions

Demystifying terms: PEV: Plug in Electric Vehicle, Type of hybrid vehicle which operates on both internal combustion engine and electrical motor. Example: Nissan leaf (Can we forget the ad?)

EV/BEV: Battery operated Electric Vehicle, driven completely by electrical batteries. Example: Tesla

 

The third age of EV

 Timelines

Electric Vehicles (EV) is definitely not a new breed of automobiles, they have been in vogue for over a century. As a matter of fact the current age is termed as the third age of EV. The first stage of EV was in the turn of the 20th century when there was an influx of technological showmanship in crafting new designs, but it faded away due to cheaper alternatives. Historical numbers indicate its resurgence in the period of 1980s when the declining US oil production meant an increase in fuel prices and a need for alternatives. The current age revolves around a need to act on the repercussions caused by the global warming. It is now driven by a surge in mass production of EV which is compared to the days when Ford T was produced in masses.

Global EV outlook

BEV PHEV

The cumulative global number for electric vehicles of all types on road (as on Sept. 2014) is 600,000 units which is a 25% increase compare to 400,000 units at the beginning of 2014 which in turn was double the capacity compared to Jan 2013 when the total number was just under 200,000 vehicles. The figures clearly indicate a trend, electric vehicles are gaining popularity  and are on track to replace the oil driven ones.

However, an interesting fact to know is that only 8 countries account for nearly 95% of that number.

NewCarSales2013

The curious case of Norway!

I first heard about the curious case of Tesla vehicles in Norway, through the podcast Freakonomics Radio. Norway, a small country of 6 million people leads the charts when it comes to percentage of electric vehicles in the mix. Nearly 7% of the vehicle sales in the period from 2013 to 2014 have been electric. With a car population of 2.5million, the number of electric vehicles around 25000 means nearly 1% of the car population is all electric. What does 1 % mean? Well, for US, the largest automobile market, to achieve that number would mean it should have an EV population of 2.5 Million, it now has nearly 200,000 only. Norway achieved this remarkable feat owing to a slew of government policies in tax subsidies, electric vehicles given priority parking, special lanes and an increasing number of choices. Notably, for a country whose economy drives on oil exports (off shore oil wells are plenty), to cut gasoline consumption by 24% in the past 5 years is a significant number. Well, if all goes well, the percentage of EV in Norway could rise to 2% as early as 2016.

Norway

The future of EV

 The future of EV depends on how we turn the challenges into opportunities. There is a need to address the challenges from Policy, Technology and infrastructure fronts.

Policy

  • Financial assistance in the form of subsidies for purchase of new vehicles
  • Regulations in terms of fuel economy and emissions (for hybrid)
  • Exemption from taxes to the end consumer
  • Varying duties for different vehicles in terms of their battery capacity and their impact on CO2 reduction would help consumers choose better vehicles and manufacturers to come up with innovative design.
  • Budget allocations to setup new manufacturing facilities.

Technology

  • Reducing the total cost of ownership
  • Reduction in battery costs
  • Increasing efficiency ( distance between successive charging)
  • Developing options to upgrade batteries seamlessly on old EV models

Infrastructure

  • Evolving building codes for setting up EV charging infrastructure
  • Charging hubs in cities
  • Dedicate lanes for EV
  • Promoting workplace charging
  • Creating special zones with benefits to promote EV manufacturing

Prefential

Electric Vehicles are critical to climate change mitigation. Small economies in Europe have set examples by adopting innovative policies to promote electric vehicles. It will be a matter of time before the same effect is seen for countries with large population.

Source of Stats: Wikipedia and GlobalEVOutlook

Advertisements

2 thoughts on “Electric Vehicle (EV) Outlook

  1. John Shoesmith says:

    Hi Girish, I like your blog, which I found via the SDSN course on Climate Change. I’m finding the course pretty frightening and I think new technologies such as electric vehicles have a key role to play. I’m excited about the combination of electric vehicles, smart phones and driverless technology to produce a really low emissions transport system, improve road safety and cut congestion and journey times. I like the idea of shared use systems rather than private vehicles. I’ve quite a few ideas on advanced electric vehicles and new ways of using them in my own blog http://sketchfifty.org/,

  2. Hi Girish, great site and blog. I found your site through a comment you posted on the IRENA site. I was recently living in Bali, Indonesia, and was saddened by the amount of cars flooding into the area. I wondered, where are the electric vehicles? Having ridden a Pulsar motorcycle there and knowing of India’s proud history of innovation I was certain that they would soon enough produce an EV domestically so I am excited to see that REVA has done just that. Back in the U.S. now I am driving a Leaf (I am not in the income bracket to afford a Tesla). I think you may have been mistaken above in referring to the Leaf as an example of a PHEV. The Leaf is a fully-electric BEV and is in fact the number one selling EV world-wide. It’s a good car and for the money, size and features by far the best alternative outside of the Tesla, though BMW has some decent offerings and Kia now has the Soul EV, but it is only available in certain markets here.
    All the best!
    James O’Hanlon
    http://www.highvoltageautomotivevt.com

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s